Planning and Forecasting

Abstract

 The failure of most new companies it mostly due to lack of effective planning and the ability to dive into the future with the state of the art planning which will bring about great innovations that can and will more the company to the next generation creation and which will can help resolve some of the world’s challenging problem. In a recent case study and research into the effect of effective planning the Monitor Group's bankruptcy surface in the research. The research reviewed how the lack of planning and forecasting effected the growth of the company which finally resulted in the company going into the bankruptcy. According to Speed Matters (2012), Monitor Group's bankruptcy was because of delay in taking aggressive actions to prevent a bankruptcy, which they were used to be hired to solve for their clients. .

scenario-type planning support planning and innovation for change

The impact of effective planning goes a long way to advance the case to innovation creation and also open the door for greater research into the current situation. The implementation scenario-type planning provides a great avenue to the advance support of constructive innovation and proper planning which does not only limit its focus to just planning but also into the field of innovation. The effective implementation of a scenario-type planning creates a great change in the overall planning and the introduction of future innovation. Further investigation review that this system introduces a strong tool which enable speedy corrective actions (Keamey, 2012). This style of planning has become a very critical choice which enable Managers and decision makers in an organization to plan for a global approach in for the growth of the business and to drive forces with global further planning.

Forces involved, and impacts they make

The planning of any system involves a challenge and these challenges are the forces that impact smooth implementation of the plan which will affect the innovation and further forecasting. Scenario base planning can be affected by natural factors such as the environment and the geographical system. Another force that affect this system can be global credit crisis. These events can be a force which affect the good plan system. These forces can cause issues and a delay in the planning and the implementation of the plans. The advancement of technology has also had some negative impact on use of these planning system. The introduction of the social media has also affected the use of this method of planning (Axson, 2011),

  

 Scenario Plan work approach

Using scenario planning for future innovation efforts

In using scenario planning for future innovation efforts, there will be need to generate a dynamic series of plausible outcomes that serve to challenge preconceptions. Research on existing organizations for such instances will be carried-out. This would enable the process to uncover blind spots, and identify what align organizations around a commonly accepted sense of direction and action.

Scenario plan and account for the social impact of change

Scenario plan do account for the social impact of change. It begins by providing leaders with a better understanding of the world and the macro drivers of change that are at work, which assist leaders to drill down to decision making at the operational level (Axson, 2011).

 References

Speed Matters (2012). Monitor Group: A Failure of Scenario Planning. Retrieved from http://spendmatters.com/2012/11/13/monitor-group-a-failure-of-scenario-planning/

KearAxson, D. J. (2011). Scenario Planning: Navigating Through Today's Uncertain World. Journal of Accountancy. Retrieved from http://www.journalofaccountancy.com/issues/2011/mar/20103483.html

Game Changing Idea that came from an Error or Accident

Game-changing Idea that came from an Error or Accident

Abstract

The act and skill of innovation and inventions have gone through lots of challenges and sometimes these ideas which look good can end up in great accidental errors. From a research extracted, according to English (2013, some of these inventions range from sticky notes, Corn Flakes and dynamite all the way to microwave ovens and Velcro). There have been a number of great ideas within our generation in the health and wellness industry which has brought good change to the male and the human race. The great changing idea of the discovery of the male enhancement pill such as the Viagra.

Viagra

In the field of medical science research into the use of medicine and drugs is very well examine however in the case of Viagra the innovation was initially meant to help patients with angina, that is patient suffering from painful heart condition where the circulatory system constricts and does not get enough oxygenated blood to the heart. The innovation was meant to treats the illness failed but however the patient discovered a side effect which was the drug generating blood flow to the male organ. This failed innovation has become one if not the best life changing innovation in our century.

Coca Cola 

Looking out for some of the world’s innovation which came out from an error into

a game changing idea. The most liked soda came to mind. Coca cola is one of the

most drank sodas. Research review that coca cola was invented by an error and the

need to drink alcohol. In the early 1885 there was a banned on the sale of alcohol.

Dr. Pemberton having the desire to drink alcohol created a purely coca-based

mixture of the syrup and mixed with carbonated water which he drank as a

soda in place of the alcohol which as banned (John Stith Pemberton 1831 - 1888). The outcome of the mixture

was a perfect drink for the temperance era. The name was the “brain tonic”

which is known as the most drank Coca Cola.

References

English, M. (2013). 10 Accidental Inventions You Won’t Believe. Retrieved from http://www.geniusstuff.com/blog/list/10-accidental-inventions/

John Stith Pemberton (1831 - 1888), Coca Cola and Cocaine

http://www.businessinsider.com/accidental-inventions-that-changed-the-world-2014-5#coca-cola-2J Oral

New Think Tank

The concept of gathering the best of brains and expertise from different sectors to enhance the implementation of an innovation that is hope to bring about great changes in a specific area can be known as the Think Tank. Within certain areas that this concept is used, the gathering of the expert is normally funded by the government. 

Think Tank is mostly used when organizations want to gain the knowledge and expertise from those concerns but do not have the available funds to run an innovation center (Penttila, 2007). The concept is adopted so that the require answer can be achieved. There are various forms of the Think Tank concept but I will discuss two such concepts.

Take it online:  This process enhances all involve parties to brainstorm the topic and can deliver the founding at any given time. A similar technique that can be used and has the same overview is the Delphi technique what gather ideas from experts who are all not that the same location. This type of brainstorming methods help the involve individuals to address the topic when much accuracy, since they are not under mass pressure to deliver their findings in rush. Since all the expert have enough time to come out with their results, every member in the group can contribute productively (Caliva & Scheier, 1992)

Combine ideas: The concept is implemented when during the process of brainstorming several well-informed ideas are gathered. Once there are several good ideas, this concept helps and encourage the merging of this ideas. This greater room for quality decision making due to mass ideas gathered. The concept also brings to like to but of both worlds there by getting the best out of the lot. This methodology help to get the best out of each individual member.

Conclusion

Think Tank is a very powerful tool to adopt around creation and innovation. The best way to get the best ideas in every area of change is through the act of collective sharing to ideas and the Think Tank concept make good use of the sharing and gathering of ideas through various concepts such those just discussed.

Reference :

Penttila, C. (2007)

5 Big Biz Think Tank Techniques

Retrieved : https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/174688

Caliva L  & Scheier , I H (1992)

Retrieved : http://academic.regis.edu/volunteer/ivan/sect03/sect03b.htm

Group Decision Making

The research process always involves groups of knowledge and at a point a decision must be made by the various groups involve in the research. These individuals play a major role in the overall research. Making a group decision on a research can be carried out in so many techniques. For this DB, we will look in the Delphi Technique of group decision making.

  Delphi Technique

 The adaptation of this technique in a decision-making process is normally used when the researcher involve in the research are physically located in different areas. is a group decision-making process that can be used by decision-making groups when the individual members are in different physical locations. A brief history about this technique reveals that this technique was initially designed by the Rand corporation. In the usage of this technique the individuals are chosen base on their various expertise in the data being process. The technique requires that each group member independently contribute by providing ideas, input and alternative solutions if the need be. These idea sharing is done various stages within the process. These collected ideas can be shared through various ways and forms i.e. Fax, Email and other forms of social network.

Further considering this technique let compare the two of the similar technique use in group decision making.  

Dialectical Inquiry: This approach involves the challenge of debating. Due to the nature of this decision-making technique the involves are place at opposite sides thereby creating a room for the decision reached to be brainstormed and challenged by the opposite side. This technique enable both parties to be heard. And finally, the best outcome is made in with final decision.

Looking at this two techniques in decision making both has their pros and cons . Each one places great focus on the effect of the final decision made with regards to the research conducted .One common thing with this techniques is the there is a lot of brainstorming and this is a sign of a good decision been made.

Reference

Barnett, T. (n.d.). Group decision making.

http://www.referenceforbusiness.com/management/Gr-Int/Group-Decision-Making.html

 Big Data in the healthcare industry

Introduction

The advancement of technology has grown so much that data has become the oil of the 21 century. The term big data and data science is now common in all areas of lives, one such area which is still researching on the benefit and usage of the term big data is the healthcare industry. It is very important to consider the various scope this term covers. Big data is general define the 3Vs which is 

1.      Velocity

2.      Variety

3.      Volume

The healthcare industry generates large amount of data from the various areas i.e. patient care records, research and diagnostics reports and general clinical dataset. The need there for to understand the sociotechnical impact with the healthcare industry  

Scope

The growing cost of healthcare and the amount of data generated seek to be a concern for the healthcare professional hence the scope of the is research will focus on answering the below concern and questions.

1. When will I need big data?
2. What should I do to prepare for big data?
3. What’s the best way to use big data?
4. What is Health Catalyst doing with big data?

Purpose

By digitizing, combining and effectively using big data, healthcare organizations ranging from single-physician offices and multi-provider groups to large hospital networks and accountable care organizations stand to realize significant benefits [2]. Potential benefits include detecting diseases at earlier stages when they can be treated more easily and effectively; managing specific individual and population health and detecting health care fraud more quickly and efficiently. Numerous questions can be addressed with big data analytics. Certain developments or outcomes may be predicted and/or estimated based on vast amounts of historical data, such as length of stay (LOS); patients who will choose elective surgery; patients who likely will not benefit from surgery; complications; patients at risk for medical complications; patients at risk for sepsis, MRSA, C. difficile, or other hospital-acquired illness; illness/disease progression; patients at risk for advancement in disease states; causal factors of illness/disease progression; and possible co-morbid conditions (EMC Consulting). McKinsey estimates that big data analytics can enable more than $300 billion in savings per year in U.S. healthcare, two thirds of that through reductions of approximately 8% in national healthcare expenditures. Clinical operations and R & D are two of the largest areas for potential savings with $165 billion and $108 billion in waste respectively [24]. McKinsey believes big data could help reduce waste and inefficiency in the following three areas:

Reference

David Crockett

Ph.D., Research & Predictive Analytics, Sr. Director

https://www.healthcatalyst.com/predictive-analytics-big-data-big-mess

Planning and Forecasting

Scenario base planning is among the many tools that an organization or a manger can use for strategic planning and innovation.  According to (Hodgson, 2004) the use of scenario planning validates future planning and innovative ideas. These planning tools enable as to plan strategically because ideas are not limited to only one side. This brings able lots of options and this lead to greater innovative ideas.

Scenario base planning was initially use by the military for their planning purposes but it was later transformed and introduce to business application in the early 1960s by Herman Kahn. Since then this too has been implemented various aspect of the life and innovation. The methodology has the capacity which allows to better understand it future operating environment. This tool gives the detail forecasting into the events of the future hence creating room for better planning. Since scenario planning establish approach communication between customers and developers, and allows for describing alternative options of solutions (Drew, 2006). Due to this fact this methodology could help to generate a large area for invention and creative innovations.

Innovation always seek to solve problem of the future and with scenario base planning since the technique make use of constant communication with the end-user, every innovation through this method improve new ideas and generate things that end up resolving issue that meet the needs of the organizations and the society as hood.  There are forces that help the smooth implementation of scenario base planning and innovation. 

Scenario building is

Superior to many other methods where number of factors to be considered and the degree of uncertainty are high;

Stimulates strategic thinking, creativity, communication and organizational agility

A tool for allowing individuals and organizations to 'create their own future'.

Always in terms of advantages we can say that a well-crafted (normative) scenario allows an organization to become proactive, working specifically for their desired future, rather than sitting by and passively waiting for whatever the world delivers.

Forces and Impact

 There certain elements or components that help speed planning and the innovations using the scenario base planning method.  Within this process: There is the constant use of effective communication between developers and world or the end user. The impact of this constant communication helps the developer to understand the need of the user, thereby being in the best position to develop ideas that can and will change the situation and the world at large.  

Another force that can impact these methodology is the implementation constructive thinking process. This process allows all parties in involve to think and bring about creative ideas that can help with the innovation. Since this concept is a collaboration of individuals with different ideas , it enables the desire out come to be reached.

Conclusion

In summary paper and over view seek to highlight the importance of the adoption of scenario type of planning in the design and creation of new things in the area creativity and innovation. This research went further into seeking the importance of the process as well as it impacts in the future.  I believe the implementation of this process in my organization will go a long way to help with the innovation of great and life changing solutions. I will adopt this process in the area of management and personal handling.

Scenario planning have a great impact to social changings. This is possible because of the involvement of individuals and the constant communication. This create room for the development of new ideas and this in the long end affect the social change.

Reference

Drew, S.A.W. (2006) ‘Building technology foresight: using scenarios to embrace innovation’, European Journal of Innovation Management, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp.241–257.

Huss, W.R. and Honton, E.J. (1987) ‘Scenario planning–What style should you use?’, Long Range Pla

Planning and Forecasting 2

The development and growth of a business or organization depends on how the organizations predict and forecast for the future where the organization will be in the next generation. It is very important that a detail analysis is taken into the serious consideration and plan put in place to enable the organization to define the future and growth of the organization. With the advancement of data generation and collection , predication of the future and  forecasting the outcome of the organization is very important . There are various predication and forecasting in the various field which came to reality. One such predication was recorded as cited 1988 prediction that the famous author Isaac Asimov predicted that we would use the internet to learn (Maceiras, 2013)

  The predication was hoping to connect the human race and machines there by enhancing the ability to study. This lead to him forecasting the event and the levels of the element it will address. This predication was believing to turn the libraries into a class where learning is conducted by books instead of a teacher. Some of the forces that affected the internet coming of age and learning thought the internet a reality was the ushering of high speed networks (Lerner, 2006) and accessibility. During that era the use of the computer was very limited and as mainly for the office hence computer was called the office PC.

This predication and idea is further extended today with concepts like virtual reality and augmented reality that can take an individual and transport them into a new place or new environment within the confines of their own home anywhere in the world.   This type of power is what Isaac Asimov said in this interview and visualized in his mind was a possible future shaped by additional forces.
Taking a look at this event show how important for a detail in deeper research into the topic and predication and forecasting within a business or organization. Isaac Asimov predication years ago has now become a reality. Today the internet has turn the entire world into a global village and truly the library is now the teacher. With this predication and forecasting our generation today can get things done faster.
In summary it is very important the future of things done today have to be taken a critical look so that it will drive the force for the next generation. Forecasting and predications have to be taken great look at in all event and organizations must make is a point have long time and short time forecasting and predication which will advance growth and stability of the business or organizations.

Reference

Leiner, B. M. (2006). Brief history of the internet . Retrieved from www.internetsociety.org: http://www.internetsociety.org/internet/what-internet/history-internet/brief-history-internet

Maceiras, M. (2013). Predictions from the past that came true. Business Insider , 8.