Planning and Forecasting

Scenario base planning is among the many tools that an organization or a manger can use for strategic planning and innovation.  According to (Hodgson, 2004) the use of scenario planning validates future planning and innovative ideas. These planning tools enable as to plan strategically because ideas are not limited to only one side. This brings able lots of options and this lead to greater innovative ideas.

Scenario base planning was initially use by the military for their planning purposes but it was later transformed and introduce to business application in the early 1960s by Herman Kahn. Since then this too has been implemented various aspect of the life and innovation. The methodology has the capacity which allows to better understand it future operating environment. This tool gives the detail forecasting into the events of the future hence creating room for better planning. Since scenario planning establish approach communication between customers and developers, and allows for describing alternative options of solutions (Drew, 2006). Due to this fact this methodology could help to generate a large area for invention and creative innovations.

Innovation always seek to solve problem of the future and with scenario base planning since the technique make use of constant communication with the end-user, every innovation through this method improve new ideas and generate things that end up resolving issue that meet the needs of the organizations and the society as hood.  There are forces that help the smooth implementation of scenario base planning and innovation. 

Scenario building is

Superior to many other methods where number of factors to be considered and the degree of uncertainty are high;

Stimulates strategic thinking, creativity, communication and organizational agility

A tool for allowing individuals and organizations to 'create their own future'.

Always in terms of advantages we can say that a well-crafted (normative) scenario allows an organization to become proactive, working specifically for their desired future, rather than sitting by and passively waiting for whatever the world delivers.

Forces and Impact

 There certain elements or components that help speed planning and the innovations using the scenario base planning method.  Within this process: There is the constant use of effective communication between developers and world or the end user. The impact of this constant communication helps the developer to understand the need of the user, thereby being in the best position to develop ideas that can and will change the situation and the world at large.  

Another force that can impact these methodology is the implementation constructive thinking process. This process allows all parties in involve to think and bring about creative ideas that can help with the innovation. Since this concept is a collaboration of individuals with different ideas , it enables the desire out come to be reached.

Conclusion

In summary paper and over view seek to highlight the importance of the adoption of scenario type of planning in the design and creation of new things in the area creativity and innovation. This research went further into seeking the importance of the process as well as it impacts in the future.  I believe the implementation of this process in my organization will go a long way to help with the innovation of great and life changing solutions. I will adopt this process in the area of management and personal handling.

Scenario planning have a great impact to social changings. This is possible because of the involvement of individuals and the constant communication. This create room for the development of new ideas and this in the long end affect the social change.

Reference

Drew, S.A.W. (2006) ‘Building technology foresight: using scenarios to embrace innovation’, European Journal of Innovation Management, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp.241–257.

Huss, W.R. and Honton, E.J. (1987) ‘Scenario planning–What style should you use?’, Long Range Pla

Planning and Forecasting 2

The development and growth of a business or organization depends on how the organizations predict and forecast for the future where the organization will be in the next generation. It is very important that a detail analysis is taken into the serious consideration and plan put in place to enable the organization to define the future and growth of the organization. With the advancement of data generation and collection , predication of the future and  forecasting the outcome of the organization is very important . There are various predication and forecasting in the various field which came to reality. One such predication was recorded as cited 1988 prediction that the famous author Isaac Asimov predicted that we would use the internet to learn (Maceiras, 2013)

  The predication was hoping to connect the human race and machines there by enhancing the ability to study. This lead to him forecasting the event and the levels of the element it will address. This predication was believing to turn the libraries into a class where learning is conducted by books instead of a teacher. Some of the forces that affected the internet coming of age and learning thought the internet a reality was the ushering of high speed networks (Lerner, 2006) and accessibility. During that era the use of the computer was very limited and as mainly for the office hence computer was called the office PC.

This predication and idea is further extended today with concepts like virtual reality and augmented reality that can take an individual and transport them into a new place or new environment within the confines of their own home anywhere in the world.   This type of power is what Isaac Asimov said in this interview and visualized in his mind was a possible future shaped by additional forces.
Taking a look at this event show how important for a detail in deeper research into the topic and predication and forecasting within a business or organization. Isaac Asimov predication years ago has now become a reality. Today the internet has turn the entire world into a global village and truly the library is now the teacher. With this predication and forecasting our generation today can get things done faster.
In summary it is very important the future of things done today have to be taken a critical look so that it will drive the force for the next generation. Forecasting and predications have to be taken great look at in all event and organizations must make is a point have long time and short time forecasting and predication which will advance growth and stability of the business or organizations.

Reference

Leiner, B. M. (2006). Brief history of the internet . Retrieved from www.internetsociety.org: http://www.internetsociety.org/internet/what-internet/history-internet/brief-history-internet

Maceiras, M. (2013). Predictions from the past that came true. Business Insider , 8.

Planning and Forecasting

A primary focus for planning in every area is to enable goals and vision set to be accomplished in a much better and easier ways. For us to compare and contrast the two systems thus (Scenario planning and Traditional Forecasting), It is very important we understand what each system means.
Scenario Planning:
     Scenario Planning is considered important tool which enable organizations and business to prepare for and un for seen events. This planning process helps organization to be more flexible in their planning and innovation for the future (Singh, 1998)  . Adapting scenario planning help organization to plan ahead to resolve future problem. Herman Kahn is considered one of the founders of futures studies and father of scenario planning, defines scenario in his book as “a set of hypothetical events set in the future constructed to clarify a possible chain of causal events as well as their decision points”


Traditional Forecasting:
      Traditional Forecasting is another system used by organization and business to plan the growth and advancement base on past data. These type of planning relays on past events and a technique is employed analysis the future.  
To compare and contrast this two planning systems means trying to get to know the strength and weakness of each system .  
Traditional forecasting  tend to fail most of the time because planning is base on old data that may have gone through lot of change . This can affect the growth and innovation for the future . This system of planning is limited due to lack of data  and also using old and out of mood information.
Scenario Planning has is back side which can affect the planning of an organization . This system make use of the data available which may or may not be correct and current. However this planning method requires more data and deeper insight to enhance good planning which will meet the demand of the end user (Customers) Who could have predicted the fast rise of something like YouTube (Johnson, 2011)?
Conclusion
 Taking the journey into the world future planning it is made clear both methods have both the good and the bad sides . It is very important that a detail investigation is carried out on which ever method an organization decides to employ . The ability to forecast and plan correctly will help with future innovation and invention that will help resolve issues in a from a small starting point .

Reference

Johnson, S. (2011). Where good ideas come from: The seven patterns of innovation. London: Penguin.
Personal Expert System: World Association of Newspapers Scenario Planning. (2013, January 1. http://personalexpertsystem.blogspot.com/2013/08/world-association-of-newspapers.html
Singh, H. (1998). Scenario planning. New Straits Times , 09.


  

Game Changing Ideas

Game-changing Idea that came from an Error or Accident

The act and skill of innovation and inventions have gone through lots of challenges and sometimes these ideas which look good can end up in great accidental errors. From a research extracted, according to English (2013, some of these inventions range from sticky notes, Corn Flakes and dynamite all the way to microwave ovens and Velcro). There have been a number of great ideas within our generation in the health and wellness industry which has brought good change to the male and the human race. The great changing idea of the discovery of the male enhancement pill such as the Viagra.

Viagra

In the field of medical science research into the use of medicine and drugs is very well examine however in the case of Viagra the innovation was initially meant to help patients with angina, that is patient suffering from painful heart condition where the circulatory system constricts and does not get enough oxygenated blood to the heart. The innovation was meant to treats the illness failed but however the patient discovered a side effect which was the drug generating blood flow to the male organ. This failed innovation has become one if not the best life changing innovation in our century.

Coca Cola  

Looking out for some of the world’s innovation which came out from an error into

a game changing idea. The most liked soda came to mind. Coca cola is one of the

most drank sodas. Research review that coca cola was invented by an error and the

need to drink alcohol. In the early 1885 there was a banned on the sale of alcohol.

Dr. Pemberton having the desire to drink alcohol created a purely coca-based

mixture of the syrup and mixed with carbonated water which he drank as a

soda in place of the alcohol which as banned. The outcome of the mixture

was a perfect drink for the temperance era. The name was the “brain tonic”

which is known as the most drank Coca Cola.

Think Tank Methods

Group decision making is a type of participatory process in which multiple individuals acting collectively, analyze problems or situations, consider and evaluate alternative courses of action, and select from among the alternatives a solution or solutions. There are many methods or procedures that can be used by groups. Each is designed to improve the decision-making process in some way. Some of the more common group decision-making methods are brainstorming, dialectical inquiry, nominal group technique, and the delphi technique.

  Delphi Technique

The Delphi technique is a group decision-making process that can be used by decision-making groups when the individual members are in different physical locations. The technique was developed at the Rand Corporation. The individuals in the Delphi "group" are usually selected because of the specific knowledge or expertise of the problem they possess. In the Delphi technique, each group member is asked to independently provide ideas, input, and/or alternative solutions to the decision problem in successive stages. These inputs may be provided in a variety of ways, such as e-mail, fax, or online in a discussion room or electronic bulletin board. After each stage in the process, other group members ask questions and alternatives are ranked or rated in some fashion. After an indefinite number of rounds, the group eventually arrives at a consensus decision on the best course of action.

Let take a look at these two other methods and compare the various advantages they have against each other .

DIALETICAL INQUIRY.

Dialetical inquiry is a group decision-making technique that focuses on ensuring full consideration of alternatives. Essentially, it involves dividing the group into opposing sides, which debate the advantages and disadvantages of proposed solutions or decisions. A similar group decision-making method, devil's advocacy, requires that one member of the group highlight the potential problems with a proposed decision. Both of these techniques are designed to try and make sure that the group considers all possible ramifications of its decision.

NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE.

The nominal group technique is a structured decision making process in which group members are required to compose a comprehensive list of their ideas or proposed alternatives in writing. The group members usually record their ideas privately. Once finished, each group member is asked, in turn, to provide one item from their list until all ideas or alternatives have been publicly recorded on a flip chart or marker board. Usually, at this stage of the process verbal exchanges are limited to requests for clarification—no evaluation or criticism of listed ideas is permitted. Once all proposals are listed publicly, the group engages in a discussion of the listed alternatives, which ends in some form of ranking or rating in order of preference. As with brainstorming, the prohibition against criticizing proposals as they are presented is designed to overcome individuals' reluctance to share their ideas. Empirical research conducted on group decision making offers some evidence that the nominal group technique succeeds in generating a greater number of decision alternatives that are of relatively high quality.

Technological Advancement and Trend

The NMC Technology Outlook for Cooperative Extension 2016-2021 was produced to explore emerging technologies and forecast their potential impact expressly in Cooperative Extension programs. In the effort that took place from April through July 2016, an esteemed panel of experts was asked to consider hundreds of relevant articles, blog posts, research, and project examples as part of the preparation that ultimately pinpointed the most notable emerging technology topics, trends, and challenges for Cooperative Extension programs over the next five years. Known as the 2016 Horizon Project Cooperative Extension Expert Panel, that group of thought leaders consists of knowledgeable individuals, all highly regarded in their fields. Collectively the panel represents a range of diverse perspectives across the Cooperative Extension sector. The project has been conducted under an open data philosophy, and all the interim projects, secondary research, discussions, and ranking instrumentation can be viewed at extension.wiki.nmc.org. The precise research methodology employed in producing the report is detailed in a special section found at the end of this report. The expert panel identified 9 key trends, 9 significant challenges, and 12 important developments in educational technology. The 12 developments in technology are profiled, each on a single page that describes and defines a technology ranked as very important for Cooperative Extension programs over the next year, two to three years, or four to five years. Every page opens with a carefully crafted definition of the highlighted technology, outlines its educational relevance, points to several real-life examples of its current use, and ends with a short list of additional readings for those who wish to learn more. Preceding those discussions are sections that detail the expert panel’s top ranked trends and challenges, and frame them into categories that illuminate why they are seen as highly influential factors in the adoption of technology in Cooperative Extension programs over the next five years. The three key sections of this report constitute a reference and straightforward technology planning guide for Cooperative Extension directors and administrators, educators, agents, faculty, staff, campus leaders, policymakers, and technologists. It is our hope that this research will help to inform the choices that institutions are making about technology to improve, support, or extend teaching, learning, and creative inquiry in Cooperative Extension programs. Educators and administrators worldwide look to the NMC Horizon Project and both its global and regional reports as key strategic technology planning references, and it is for that purpose that the NMC Technology Outlook for Cooperative Extension 2016-2021 is presented.